Oil Price Stress Test
See how oil price swings affect your well economics. NPV, IRR, and payout at 7 price scenarios. Updated with live WTI.
Well Parameters
Breakeven Oil Price
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Calculating...
EUR (30-Year Life)
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Enter your well parameters above to see your price sensitivity analysis.
Scenario Comparison
| Price | NPV | IRR | Payout | Revenue | Net Income | Status |
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NPV vs. Oil Price
Sensitivity Spider Chart
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Our team runs multi-scenario economics across hundreds of wells, incorporating reservoir uncertainty, price forecasts, and operating constraints.
Book a free strategy call →Understanding Oil Price Sensitivity in Well Economics
Oil price volatility is the single largest risk factor for upstream investments. A well that generates strong returns at $70/bbl may become uneconomic at $45/bbl, and the difference between those two scenarios can materialize in weeks. Price stress testing is the practice of evaluating your well economics across a range of commodity price assumptions to understand where the pain hits and how much margin you have before a project flips from profitable to value-destroying.
This tool calculates net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), payout period, and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) at seven oil price scenarios from $30 to $90 per barrel. It uses hyperbolic decline curve modeling (Arps equation with user-defined b-factor) to project monthly production over a 30-year well life, then applies your operating expenses, net revenue interest, severance taxes, and discount rate to generate a full cash flow analysis at each price point.
The breakeven price is calculated using a bisection algorithm to find the exact oil price at which NPV equals zero. This is arguably the most important number in the analysis — it tells you the minimum oil price required for your well to generate a positive risk-adjusted return at your specified discount rate. The margin between breakeven and current WTI is your buffer against price downturns.
The sensitivity spider chart shows how NPV responds to changes in four key variables: oil price, CAPEX, LOE, and decline rate. Each variable is swept from -30% to +30% of the base case while holding all others constant. The steepest line indicates the variable with the most leverage on project value. In most unconventional wells, oil price dominates, but in high-cost environments or late-life wells, operating expenses can become the controlling factor.
The live WTI price is fetched from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API so you always see your economics against the most current market price. All calculations run entirely in your browser — no data is sent to any server. Built by Groundwork Analytics, an AI and engineering company that builds digital tools and deploys AI agents for the energy industry. We help operators, service companies, and engineering teams automate workflows, optimize operations, and make better decisions with their data. Get in touch or email us at info@petropt.com. Mehrdad Shirangi (Stanford PhD) specializing in reservoir simulation, production optimization, and AI/ML applications for upstream oil and gas.