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Probabilistic Decline Forecast

PRO

Monte Carlo simulation of Arps hyperbolic decline. Define ranges for qi, Di, and b-factor, run simulations, and get P10/P50/P90 forecast curves.

Parameter Ranges (Uniform Distribution)

qi Min (BOPD)

qi Max (BOPD)

Di Min (annual, fraction)

Di Max (annual)

b Min

b Max

Forecast Months

Simulations

Economic Limit (BOPD)

P50 EUR

MSTB

P10 EUR (High)

MSTB

P90 EUR (Low)

MSTB

Mean EUR

MSTB

Need probabilistic reserves assessment or type curve development?